What can businesses expect from the 2026 Scottish election? Key insights from our latest webinar

With the next Scottish Parliament election approaching, Women’s Enterprise Scotland recently hosted a webinar in partnership with public affairs consultancy Linco, bringing together expert insight on the current political landscape and what it may mean for businesses across Scotland.

Catriona Matheson and Innes Taylor led a wide-ranging discussion, offering both context and forward-looking analysis on how the political environment is evolving, what current polling suggests, and where there may be opportunities for businesses and organisations to engage.

Scotland’s political landscape in context

The session began with an overview of Scotland’s devolved political system and how it has evolved since the Scottish Parliament was established in 1999. Over time, additional powers and responsibilities have been introduced, shaping the role of Holyrood and the decisions it can make in areas that directly affect businesses and the economy.

The discussion also touched on the broader political climate, including a sense of public dissatisfaction with politics. This is an important factor to consider in the run-up to the election, as it may influence voter behaviour and contribute to shifts in party support.

Polling trends and what they may indicate

Current polling suggests that the SNP is likely to remain the largest party in the Scottish Parliament, maintaining a consistent lead over its competitors. However, the race for second place is less certain.

Both Labour and Reform are competing closely, with recent polling indicating that Reform has seen a notable rise in support and could secure a significant number of seats. Labour, while performing strongly in the 2024 UK general election, has experienced some decline in polling in Scotland in recent months.

While the overall picture suggests relative stability at the top, the balance across the Parliament could look quite different following the election.

Key issues shaping the election

Although party manifestos are still to be published, several core issues are already dominating political discussion. These include the economy, the cost of living, and the delivery of public services such as healthcare.

Different parties are expected to approach these challenges in different ways:

• Some are likely to place a strong emphasis on economic growth and business support

• Others may prioritise public service investment and reform

• Additional areas such as green growth, taxation and infrastructure are also expected to feature

  
  

While some early policy signals have emerged including proposals relating to childcare, housing and healthcare. The full detail will become clearer as the campaign progresses.

Understanding the election process

The webinar also provided a useful overview of how Scottish Parliament elections operate. The system combines constituency voting with regional lists, allowing for a more proportional result and giving smaller parties the opportunity to gain representation.

Attendees heard that results may take time to fully confirm, particularly in closely contested areas, with final outcomes potentially not clear until several days after polling.

What happens after the election?

Based on current trends, the SNP is expected to form the next government, most likely as a minority or with a small majority.

However, the composition of that government may look quite different. A significant number of MSPs are expected to stand down, including a large proportion of experienced members. This will result in a period of transition, with new cabinet appointments and shifting dynamics within Parliament.

The new government is expected to outline its Programme for Government before the summer recess, with an early focus on policies that can demonstrate delivery and respond to key public concerns.

Opportunities for businesses to engage

One of the most important takeaways from the session was the scale of opportunity for engagement in the period following the election.

With new MSPs entering Parliament and ministerial roles changing, there will be multiple routes for businesses and organisations to connect with decision-makers. These include:

• Building relationships with newly elected MSPs

• Engaging with ministers and parliamentary committees

• Contributing to consultations and policy development

• Participating in wider discussions around economic and sector priorities

  
  

Speakers also highlighted the value of collective engagement, with organisations working together to raise shared priorities and ensure their voices are heard.

Looking ahead

The discussion concluded with a wide-ranging Q&A, reflecting strong interest in how Scotland’s political landscape is evolving and what it may mean in practice.

Topics included Scotland’s future positioning, representation within Parliament, and the likelihood of specific policy commitments being delivered. While there are still uncertainties, the session reinforced the importance of staying informed and engaging early.

As the election approaches, the political environment will continue to develop bringing both challenges and opportunities for businesses across Scotland.

Women’s representation in politics

The session also touched on the noticeable number of women stepping down from Parliament ahead of the election. Speakers highlighted that leaving politics can be a particularly challenging transition, especially for younger MSPs, with many moving into portfolio careers, advisory roles or consultancy.

While individual circumstances vary, this shift raises broader questions around representation and retention within politics, and what more may be needed to support women to enter, remain and progress in political roles. It also reflects the changing composition of Parliament, with a significant number of new MSPs expected following the election.

Women’s Enterprise Scotland Manifesto

As part of this ongoing conversation, Women’s Enterprise Scotland is calling for greater focus on the needs and contributions of women-led businesses.

We encourage you to read our manifesto to understand our key priorities, including the proposed £50 million commitment to support women in business, and explore how these recommendations could help shape a more inclusive and sustainable business environment in Scotland.